Fantasy Forecaster: Dec. 10-16
By Neil Tardy | Special to ESPN.com
I was amused seeing the Houston Rockets beat the Los Angeles Lakers earlier this week. It's not that I hate the Lakers, nor do I get any thrill from seeing one of Matthew Berry's favorite teams lose. What amused me was how the Rockets rallied for the win behind some barely used reserves like Toney Douglas and Greg Smith, while starters Jeremy Lin, Omer Asik and Chandler Parsons were reduced to spectators.
The Rockets have been riding their starters pretty hard, and despite the timely efforts of Douglas and Smith, I imagine they'll continue to do so. But looking at their schedule over the next few weeks, I wonder how Houston's starters will respond.
Don't get me wrong; as a fantasy owner, I would never make too much of too many minutes. Kevin Durant played the most minutes in the NBA last season, and he's doing so again this season. And between then and now, he went to the NBA Finals and then to the Olympics. I think he's shown that he can handle that workload. Durant and his fellow NBA players are paid to play. And as world-class athletes, they're all up to that task.
Still, the Rockets' starters are pretty inexperienced at the roles and responsibilities they're taking on. Both James Harden and Parsons are averaging 38 minutes per game. As a rookie in 2011-12, Parsons logged 29 minutes a night. And last season, as the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year with the Oklahoma City Thunder, Harden averaged just 31 minutes, and that was easily a career best for him. The other starters -- Lin, Asik and Patrick Patterson -- are all currently in the 30- to 33-minute range. But none of these players has ever started throughout a full NBA season.
During the Rockets' 9-8 start, they've played four sets of back-to-back games. On the second night of those pairs, they're 1-3, and failed to reach 100 points in all of those contests. This from a team that's averaging 103.7 points per game, which ranks second in the league. Harden, who's averaging 23.6 points per game on the season, averaged just 16.8 points per game on 30.0 percent shooting during those four games.
And all that tells us ... nothing, right? Small sample size and all. That's why I'm interested to see how the next few weeks will play out. Because from this weekend through the final weekend of January, the Rockets play not one, not four, but 10 back-to-back sets. Even more remarkably, from Christmas through Jan. 19 -- roughly 3 1/2 weeks -- the Rockets play four games in five nights three times.
Most likely this poses more good than bad for fantasy owners. In addition to getting big numbers from your Rockets stalwarts, Houston has become one of those teams you want to see your players compete against. That's because at this pace, they're about as bad defensively as they are good offensively in terms of fantasy scoring. Rockets opponents rank second in points, fifth in 3-pointers, sixth in field-goal percentage, fourth in blocks and sixth in steals.
One thing that this tells me, though: Ready or not, the Rockets will have to go to their bench more. And that brings me to Carlos Delfino. (At least it will in a bit.)
[h=3]Week 7 at a Glance[/h]
<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style>
<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>"R" matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup), and are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics, their opponents' numbers in those categories, and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the right lists the team's total number of games scheduled ("G") as well as home games ("H"), and lists the overall rating from 1-10 for that team's weekly schedule ("R").
By Neil Tardy | Special to ESPN.com
I was amused seeing the Houston Rockets beat the Los Angeles Lakers earlier this week. It's not that I hate the Lakers, nor do I get any thrill from seeing one of Matthew Berry's favorite teams lose. What amused me was how the Rockets rallied for the win behind some barely used reserves like Toney Douglas and Greg Smith, while starters Jeremy Lin, Omer Asik and Chandler Parsons were reduced to spectators.
The Rockets have been riding their starters pretty hard, and despite the timely efforts of Douglas and Smith, I imagine they'll continue to do so. But looking at their schedule over the next few weeks, I wonder how Houston's starters will respond.
Don't get me wrong; as a fantasy owner, I would never make too much of too many minutes. Kevin Durant played the most minutes in the NBA last season, and he's doing so again this season. And between then and now, he went to the NBA Finals and then to the Olympics. I think he's shown that he can handle that workload. Durant and his fellow NBA players are paid to play. And as world-class athletes, they're all up to that task.
Still, the Rockets' starters are pretty inexperienced at the roles and responsibilities they're taking on. Both James Harden and Parsons are averaging 38 minutes per game. As a rookie in 2011-12, Parsons logged 29 minutes a night. And last season, as the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year with the Oklahoma City Thunder, Harden averaged just 31 minutes, and that was easily a career best for him. The other starters -- Lin, Asik and Patrick Patterson -- are all currently in the 30- to 33-minute range. But none of these players has ever started throughout a full NBA season.
During the Rockets' 9-8 start, they've played four sets of back-to-back games. On the second night of those pairs, they're 1-3, and failed to reach 100 points in all of those contests. This from a team that's averaging 103.7 points per game, which ranks second in the league. Harden, who's averaging 23.6 points per game on the season, averaged just 16.8 points per game on 30.0 percent shooting during those four games.
And all that tells us ... nothing, right? Small sample size and all. That's why I'm interested to see how the next few weeks will play out. Because from this weekend through the final weekend of January, the Rockets play not one, not four, but 10 back-to-back sets. Even more remarkably, from Christmas through Jan. 19 -- roughly 3 1/2 weeks -- the Rockets play four games in five nights three times.
Most likely this poses more good than bad for fantasy owners. In addition to getting big numbers from your Rockets stalwarts, Houston has become one of those teams you want to see your players compete against. That's because at this pace, they're about as bad defensively as they are good offensively in terms of fantasy scoring. Rockets opponents rank second in points, fifth in 3-pointers, sixth in field-goal percentage, fourth in blocks and sixth in steals.
One thing that this tells me, though: Ready or not, the Rockets will have to go to their bench more. And that brings me to Carlos Delfino. (At least it will in a bit.)
[h=3]Week 7 at a Glance[/h]
<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style>
<center> </center> | Team | <center> Mon 12/10 </center> | <center> Tue 12/11 </center> | <center> Wed 12/12 </center> | <center> Thu 12/13 </center> | <center> Fri 12/14 </center> | <center> Sat 12/15 </center> | <center> Sun 12/16 </center> | <center> </center> |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | @MIA R: 6 | OFF | @ORL R: 5 | CHA R: 8 | OFF | GS R: 6 | OFF | G: 4 H: 2 R: 8 |
| Boston Celtics | OFF | OFF | DAL R: 7 | OFF | @HOU R: 7 | @SA R: 4 | OFF | G: 3 H: 1 R: 4 |
| Brooklyn Nets | OFF | NY R: 5 | @TOR R: 6 | OFF | DET R: 4 | @CHI R: 2 | OFF | G: 4 H: 2 R: 6 |
| Charlotte Bobcats | GS R: 5 | OFF | LAC R: 3 | @ATL R: 4 | OFF | ORL R: 4 | OFF | G: 4 H: 3 R: 6 |
| Chicago Bulls | OFF | LAC R: 3 | @PHI R: 5 | OFF | OFF | BKN R: 2 | OFF | G: 3 H: 2 R: 1 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | OFF | LAL R: 3 | @IND R: 1 | OFF | MIL R: 5 | @NY R: 4 | OFF | G: 4 H: 2 R: 4 |
| Dallas Mavericks | SAC R: 8 | OFF | @BOS R: 4 | OFF | @TOR R: 5 | @MIN R: 1 | OFF | G: 4 H: 1 R: 6 |
| Denver Nuggets | OFF | @DET R: 6 | @MIN R: 5 | OFF | MEM R: 6 | OFF | @SAC R: 9 | G: 4 H: 1 R: 9 |
| Detroit Pistons | @PHI R: 3 | DEN R: 7 | OFF | OFF | @BKN R: 1 | IND R: 1 | OFF | G: 4 H: 2 R: 4 |
| Golden State Warriors | @CHA R: 8 | OFF | @MIA R: 6 | OFF | @ORL R: 4 | @ATL R: 5 | OFF | G: 4 H: 0 R: 8 |
| Houston Rockets | SA R: 7 | OFF | WSH R: 8 | OFF | BOS R: 9 | OFF | @TOR R: 9 | G: 4 H: 3 R: 10 |
| Indiana Pacers | OFF | OFF | CLE R: 6 | OFF | PHI R: 5 | @DET R: 3 | OFF | G: 3 H: 2 R: 3 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | OFF | @CHI R: 4 | @CHA R: 9 | OFF | OFF | @MIL R: 8 | OFF | G: 3 H: 0 R: 5 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | OFF | @CLE R: 9 | OFF | @NY R: 6 | @WSH R: 7 | OFF | @PHI R: 7 | G: 4 H: 0 R: 10 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | OFF | OFF | @PHX R: 8 | OFF | @DEN R: 7 | @UTA R: 6 | OFF | G: 3 H: 0 R: 5 |
| Miami Heat | ATL R: 8 | OFF | GS R: 7 | OFF | OFF | WSH R: 8 | OFF | G: 3 H: 3 R: 6 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | OFF | OFF | SAC R: 7 | OFF | @CLE R: 6 | LAC R: 4 | OFF | G: 3 H: 2 R: 4 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | OFF | OFF | DEN R: 7 | OFF | @NO R: 7 | DAL R: 7 | OFF | G: 3 H: 2 R: 5 |
| New Orleans Hornets | OFF | WSH R: 3 | @OKC R: 3 | OFF | MIN R: 1 | OFF | @POR R: 7 | G: 4 H: 2 R: 5 |
| New York Knicks | OFF | @BKN R: 4 | OFF | LAL R: 5 | OFF | CLE R: 8 | OFF | G: 3 H: 2 R: 4 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | OFF | OFF | NO R: 10 | OFF | SAC R: 10 | OFF | OFF | G: 2 H: 2 R: 4 |
| Orlando Magic | OFF | OFF | ATL R: 4 | OFF | GS R: 4 | @CHA R: 5 | OFF | G: 3 H: 2 R: 3 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | DET R: 3 | OFF | CHI R: 2 | OFF | @IND R: 1 | OFF | LAL R: 3 | G: 4 H: 3 R: 3 |
| Phoenix Suns | OFF | OFF | MEM R: 3 | OFF | UTA R: 6 | OFF | OFF | G: 2 H: 2 R: 1 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | TOR R: 8 | OFF | OFF | SA R: 5 | OFF | OFF | NO R: 8 | G: 3 H: 3 R: 5 |
| Sacramento Kings | @DAL R: 5 | OFF | @MIL R: 4 | OFF | @OKC R: 2 | OFF | DEN R: 6 | G: 4 H: 1 R: 6 |
| San Antonio Spurs | @HOU R: 9 | OFF | @UTA R: 7 | @POR R: 9 | OFF | BOS R: 8 | OFF | G: 4 H: 1 R: 10 |
| Toronto Raptors | @POR R: 6 | OFF | BKN R: 3 | OFF | DAL R: 7 | OFF | HOU R: 7 | G: 4 H: 3 R: 8 |
| Utah Jazz | OFF | OFF | SA R: 6 | OFF | @PHX R: 8 | MEM R: 4 | OFF | G: 3 H: 2 R: 4 |
| Washington Wizards | OFF | @NO R: 6 | @HOU R: 6 | OFF | LAL R: 2 | @MIA R: 4 | OFF | G: 4 H: 1 R: 6 |
<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>
<center> Ratings color scale </center> |
---|